Robust, deterministic tracking has been the bedrock of effective affiliate marketing since its inception. It not only ensures affiliates are fairly rewarded for sales they generate, but also helps advertisers better understand their marketing activity. This enables them to allocate budget to the right channels and partners, supporting their own growth.
But with deterministic tracking principles challenged by an increasing number of factors, Awin is today announcing a new Conversion Protection Initiative (CPI) aimed squarely at mitigating these issues and offsetting their impact on the affiliate industry.
The first wave of the CPI is focused specifically at encouraging Awin advertisers to upgrade two key pillars of deterministic affiliate tracking; server-to-server (S2S) and app tracking.
In addition, Awin has developed a new, data-driven probabilistic tracking method which will initially be applied to those advertisers that don’t make the necessary deterministic tracking upgrades.
Awin will use this new probabilistic tracking method on top of the standard deterministic one to account for affiliate sales which are not accurately tracked due to sub-optimal tracking set-ups. This will mean these advertisers having additional sales automatically added to their programmes based on the calculations of Awin’s probabilistic method.
The CPI will come into effect from April 7th, 2025, providing a grace period of more than five months for affected advertisers to upgrade their tracking.
Why is Awin launching this initiative?
The affiliate industry is the ultimate performance-based channel. The CPA (cost-per-action) commercial model that anchors it has given advertisers a unique means of reaching audiences online without risking up-front ad costs.
Unlike most other paid advertising channels, where there is an expectation to spend money for exposure regardless of the outcome, affiliates promote brands to their audiences with the understanding that they are paid when their efforts drive sales.
This is a model that has generated mutual value for decades.
Advertisers generate sales and revenue, while publishers earn commissions that help fuel their own growth. Deterministic affiliate tracking has long underpinned this virtuous circle.
As the wider digital landscape has evolved, affiliate tracking has also had to adapt to continue enabling fair rewards for sales driven by affiliates.
In more recent years, the ability to accurately track and attribute customer journeys has become increasingly difficult due to a combination of factors: from regulatory changes and the growing adoption of ad blockers to web browsers and device makers restricting how companies can collect information on user journeys online. And the future direction of travel points towards this trend continuing with deterministic tracking methods increasingly being challenged.
That said, Awin has been at the forefront of the industry in developing deterministic technologies to insulate our customers and publishers from the impact of these challenges, all while keeping user privacy in mind.
- First-party tracking via our MasterTag has been available for more than a decade.
- Server-to-server tracking is expected to be implemented for both new and existing programmes.
- Awin is integrated with a wide variety of Mobile Measurement Partners (MMPs) and app tracking solutions to ensure app-based sales can be accurately tracked.
Despite concerted efforts to have all advertisers upgrade their tracking to the best possible standard, there are still some that lag behind. By doing so, a significant sum of affiliate sales are not being tracked. For affiliates, that means a sizable amount of commission and sales going unrecognised and unpaid. For advertisers, this means the impact of the channel is being significantly understated, with other channels and routes to purchase reaping the benefit.
This threatens not only the individual affiliate businesses affected, but also the delicately balanced ecosystem of partnerships that is premised on the affiliate ad model.
More than this, even, it limits the very size of that ecosystem. Without properly understanding the value we drive, how can the affiliate industry attract more investment from advertisers and continue to grow?
So, Awin is launching the Conversion Protection Initiative to modernise tracking standards and reform them for a world in which relying solely on deterministic methods is insufficient. By doing so, we aim to revitalise the affiliate industry and ensure that both advertisers and publishers can thrive together.
What is Awin’s Conversion Protection Initiative?
The initial wave of the CPI consists of two central components.
The first relates to advertisers upgrading two fundamental parts of deterministic tracking; server-to-server (S2S) and app tracking.
While the second aspect relates to the introduction of probabilistic tracking.
Server-to-Server (S2S) tracking
Awin has shown previously how implementing S2S tracking leads to more sales being tracked. S2S tracking has been a required component of our tracking policy for some time. This implementation of S2S tracking will continue to be enforced, requiring advertisers not already using it to do so.
For the optimal tracking setup, Awin strongly recommends a hybrid approach incorporating the use of our MasterTag and server-to-server tracking, which you can read about here.
App tracking
Where an advertiser has a transactional app, that app must be able to track affiliate sales. With mobile transactions continuing to grow over time and shoppers increasingly preferring to shop via the apps of their favourite brands, it is vital that affiliate app tracking is in place.
To implement app tracking with Awin, advertisers typically need to partner with a Mobile Measurement Partner (MMP), integrate the Awin tracking link and configure event tracking within the app. You can find out more about this here.
Probabilistic tracking
Though deterministic affiliate tracking methods are preferable, the reality is they also continue to be challenged by a variety of external factors beyond our control. With this in mind, Awin has developed its own probabilistic tracking method to offset the hurdles deterministic tracking may face, both now and in the future.
With the initial launch of the CPI, Awin plans to apply this data-driven approach to tracking to those advertisers that don’t make the necessary upgrades to their deterministic tracking (S2S or app, as outlined above).
How is the probabilistic tracking method calculated?
The logic powering Awin’s probabilistic method is based upon the 10,000s of tracking calls we make every day across affiliate programmes worldwide. We have used this vast set of historic data in combination with wider industry benchmark data to model a specific figure for each affected advertiser.
For those advertisers who do not upgrade their mobile apps, they have the option to share the percentage of sales they currently generate via their app with us to aid the accuracy of the probabilistic model.
If an advertiser does not share this information with us, Awin will use its own modelled data to estimate what this rate should be.
I’m an Awin advertiser. How do I find out whether I’m a part of the new Conversion Protection Initiative?
If you're an Awin advertiser and want to know if you're part of the first wave of the new Conversion Protection Initiative, you will have already received an email from us. Your account manager will be in touch shortly to discuss any necessary next steps you need to take. If you don’t have an account manager, please contact our tech support teams here for more information.
I can’t make the necessary tracking upgrades, what will happen to me?
We understand that it’s not always simple to make necessary upgrades to tracking. But it’s also crucial to ensure your partners are being paid for sales they’re helping to generate. With this in mind, Awin’s probabilistic tracking method is designed to fill the void. For those advertisers who cannot upgrade their deterministic tracking by April 7th 2025, the new probabilistic method will be layered on top of their existing tracking instead. This will mean additional sales being automatically added to your programme to offset those which are being missed.
I’m an Awin publisher. What does this mean for me?
This change will benefit you as a publisher by providing a more accurate picture of sales generated through your efforts. With improved tracking, you can expect to see a more precise reflection of your performance, which may lead to an uplift in recorded sales and a stronger partnership with your advertisers.
I’m an Awin agency partner. What does this mean for me?
This change will enhance the accuracy of sales tracking for your clients, providing a more precise view of campaign performance. To support this improvement, you may need to provide additional guidance to your clients on understanding and implementing the necessary tracking changes. Ultimately, this improved data will benefit both your agency and your clients by providing a stronger foundation for campaign success.
What about consent?
Consent banners are another huge challenge that affiliate marketers face today, impacting our ability to accurately track sales. Awin has developed its own tool (Consent Signals) enabling advertisers to pass consent information to us as part of a tracked journey. Awin is also part of the IAB’s TCF solution for a similar purpose.
Although consent is not currently an aspect which the Conversion Protection Initiative is focused on, it is something that Awin is actively exploring to understand how we can best mitigate its impact on tracking and ensure our advertisers and affiliates can continue to work together effectively, whilst protecting users’ privacy. The introduction of probabilistic tracking from April next year paves the way to a solution to this.
Better tracking accuracy, no more free sales.
Ultimately, the goal of this initiative is to achieve as high a proportion of deterministic tracking as possible on every Awin advertiser programme. But also, to recognise that when, for whatever reason, this falls short, the solution cannot be free sales but instead a sophisticated, data-modelled alternative.
In doing so we aim to ensure that affiliate marketing remains a fair and viable ad model for all parties.
Awin is taking a bold approach to reinvigorating affiliate tracking and priming it for a world in which the deterministic principles of the past are not as firm as they once were
We believe the future of tracking tech stacks will be a healthy mix of both deterministic and probabilistic methods, with the balance of the two unique to each advertiser and governed by their setups and the data they share with us.
There are huge benefits for everyone if we can collectively come together to ensure our most fundamental practices work effectively. Tracking is one of these fundamentals and its improved efficacy will not only lead to less unrewarded sales for affiliates, but also to much better transparency around performance and a clearer view on the size and impact of the entire affiliate industry.
With better insight as to what’s worked in the past and what’s working today, advertisers can make better decisions in the future.
Awin is committed to preserving the future of affiliate marketing, and we feel strongly that improving tracking standards is a vital step in that direction.
