Awin’s 10 predictions for Black Friday and Cyber Week 2023

Cyber Week 2023 will present another set of unique challenges for advertisers this year. Against the backdrop of a global cost-of-living crisis and tightened internal budgets, marketers everywhere can expect a cooler quarter regarding consumer appetite. To help navigate these challenges, Awin’s global experts have put together their top 10 predictions to ensure success this year. 

1. Expect discounting to be high 

Advertisers should expect competitors to run higher than usual discount offers across Cyber Week. Early reporting has indicated an overstock of products ranging from electronics to fashion due to retailers underestimating the impact of the cost-of-living crisis. This will result in key sectors promoting stronger than usual discounting to shift remaining stock from the year.  

We would suggest engaging or re-engaging with discount partners for unique and premium placements as well as utilizing tools such as voucher attribution on Awin. 

2. Futureproofing becomes vital 

Protecting consumers’ information has never been more important and Apple recently acted with their latest iOS 17 update in September 2023. While we only expect this to have a minimal impact for Awin advertisers, maintaining tracking effectiveness while ensuring transparency and user-catered practices through a full Awin tracking suite will be key, and one of the determining factors for publishers promoting certain programs.  

3. Black Friday ‘creep' will be back 

We predict that consumers’ purchase intent and the start of Black Friday sales from retailers will begin to ramp up earlier again this year. This ‘creep’ has been evident for many years now with the start of advertisers’ promotional periods appearing sooner in the calendar. 

With a report showing 41% of consumers wait for strong offers before and throughout Cyber Week, both retailers and publishers are likely to target these potential shoppers as early as possible. Expect competitors to have already started their sales in October and make sure your promotional planning is agile and adaptable to the market. 

4. Brands get personal 

With brands starting their promotional activity earlier, they must make sure they reach their target audiences with not only great deals, but tailored methods that can help increase conversion. 

The result of this will be the increased appetite and use of tech partners on Awin that can help drive growth during Cyber Week. With the ability to retarget and redirect users back onto site or push higher AOV’s this Black Friday, we expect advertisers to utilize tech partners as a key component of their marketing strategy. 

5. A Gen-Z focused Black Friday 

Gen-Z have remained resilient shoppers during the cost-of-living crisis and are more likely to shop at familiar and known brands. With this in mind, brands will start to target them earlier this year by optimizing their social media campaigns across TikTok and Instagram, driving a core message around brand ethos and causes that resonate strongly with younger audiences such as sustainability and ethical practices. 

With a dedicated in-house team alongside relationships with major influencer platforms and technology companies, Awin can help you get the most out of your social activity. 

Get in touch with the team to discuss potential campaigns and opportunities.  

6. Influencers diversifying growth 

In 2023, influencers are driving more revenue than ever on Awin and across a wider array of sectors. No longer confined to the likes of health & beauty or fashion, influencers have expanded to new verticals, generating significant growth across DIY, FMCG and electronics. During Cyber we expect more great content from influencers with focuses across a wider range of advertisers - think air fryers as well as trainers, DIY as well as designer bags and food subscriptions as well as makeup. 

Advertisers should be acting now to optimize content creators, encouraging new influencers to join their program and providing them the brand education to help them drive awareness and sales growth.  

7. Treat purchases to flourish 

If you’re a health & beauty, fashion or electronics retailer, you should be on the lookout for treat purchases because of the ‘lipstick effect’ – the tendency for consumers to still purchase luxury items, albeit less costly ones, during an economic downturn. While larger ticket items such as white goods, high-end electronics and holidays will most likely see decreased interest, expect consumers to turn to micro-luxuries such as beauty products. More premium, yet still affordable versions of food and drink have also proven popular with coffee and chocolate being favorites among consumers. 

This trend has been noticeable across the platform with sales numbers generally lower, but AOVs increasing well past the rate of inflation. Advertisers should consider working with tech partners to create targeted content and product recommendations, encouraging treat purchases and creating cross and upsell opportunities on-site.  

To learn more about Awin’s technology partners, browse through Awin’s tech partner directory. 

8. Health and Beauty to remain resilient 

There is one specific sector we believe will remain incredibly strong during the Golden Quarter - health & beauty. 

A key aspect to this is of course the ‘lipstick effect’, but consumer sales for the health & beauty industry has remained strong throughout 2023 so far. Men’s cosmetics has been in decline for the last 12 months, but categories such as skincare, makeup and hair care remain resilient, and this is where we expect the majority of cyber performance to remain strong. 

9. An appeal to Buy Now Pay Later 

BNPL propositions have grown significantly over the last several years by providing a flexible payment model for consumers that lets them spread the cost of purchases. Moreover, they now play a crucial role in shoppers’ purchase journeys. Their mobile-first apps provide central shopping hubs that are often the first port of call of consumers when looking for products. 

With Black Friday appearing earlier this year than in recent years and consumers’ intent to get great deals prior to payday and for Christmas, many may utilize BNPL options to not only manage the cost of larger purchases, but as a convenient tool to browse and shop several brands at once.  

10. Move over Black Friday! 

While remaining sustainability conscious has undoubtedly presented a challenge for brands when costs are increasing, we expect there to be a stronger than usual demand for eco-products during what some are pushing as “Green Friday” promotions. 

On Awin, several brands have turned their attention to elevating their eco-propositions, such as sales of secondhand products, greener delivery options or donations to environmental charities. Publishers have also launched specific placements and exposure, highlighting advertisers who have made commitments to green or eco-friendly causes. 

As an advertiser, expect sustainability to be at the forefront of both publisher opportunities as well as consumer priorities.